As coronavirus cases surge across the country, Gov. Ned Lamont pushed back aspects of Connecticut’s reopening Thursday, bringing more uncertainty to the question of when live music might return to Connecticut stages.

“I do think that indoor venues will be able to open in Phase three,” David Lehman, commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development, said Tuesday. “The real question, if we move forward, is capacity. … When you start talking about events at the XL Center or other large indoor events where there’s a high risk of co-mingling, I don’t think that’s going to happen given the risk profile.”

On Wednesday, Gov. Ned Lamont indicated he might “pause” Connecticut’s reopening and “err on the side of caution,” as COVID-19 cases surge in other states. Lamont, who has been among the country’s most cautious governors in moving to reopen, did not allow the state’s bars to reopen and said Thursday they would likely not reopen this summer.

The Phase three reopening slated for later this month was to include bars, indoor event spaces and allow large outdoor events of up to 100 people.

Amid the evolving strategy, Lehman said he believes reduced-capacity outdoor concerts will remain the safest way to hear live music. He has been speaking with performing art center and venue owners and estimated that guidance for business owners will be finalized by July 10.

“Indoor arts centers are very important to the economy, but we’re just going to be more measured in terms of the amount of people that are allowed there, given what we think of the heightened risk.”

The uncertainty has made it difficult for venues to plan. Though many events have been canceled, a few remain scheduled for the end of July.

Live Nation, which operates two of the state’s largest venues — the XFINITY Theatre, a 30,000 capacity indoor-outdoor amphitheater in Hartford, and the indoor Toyota Oakdale Theatre in Wallingford — declined to comment for this story. As of Tuesday, there were still shows listed on the venues’ websites scheduled for July and August.

Keith Mahler, president of Premier Concerts, which operates the Space Ballroom in Hamden and College Street Music Hall and still-unopened Westville Music Bowl in New Haven, said “there’s nothing to contemplate” about re-opening until the state outlines its requirements.

“We fully expect to comply with all orders when they’re promulgated,” Mahler said.

Cafe Nine and Infinity Hall also follow a long list of canceled and postponed events with shows that will go forward at the end of July, should reopening guidelines allow it.

The situation for Connecticut venue owners mirrors what’s happening around the country. At the beginning of the shutdown, College Street Music Hall and the Space Ballroom joined the National Independent Venue Association (NIVA), a new lobbying effort for independent music venues with close to 2,000 members across the country, according to the organization.

On Tuesday, NIVA sent a letter to Congress requesting federal assistance for independent music venues and promoters. The letter was signed by more than 600 artists.

“We are asking you to support NIVA’s request for assistance so these beloved venues can reopen when it’s safe and welcome us and our fans back in,” the letter states. “The collapse of this crucial element in the music industry’s ecosystem would be devastating.”

For some venue owners, reopening to less that a full house simply isn’t worth it.

“If we don’t sell 200 tickets, there’s not enough money to pay for all the expenses with the bands and everything else,” said Gary Cardillo, owner of Bridge Street Live in Collinsville. “Are you going to double your ticket price or food price? None of that makes sense. We’re kind of in that limbo situation where it really doesn’t look good no matter which way we play it.”

As he deals with cancellations and re-booking artists, Cardillo said he’s been reluctant to schedule any new shows. He communicates with patrons who still hold tickets to canceled shows about new dates and refunds.

“People have been really nice. We’ve only been asked for a couple refunds. Mostly everybody else is holding on to tickets in support of the music. But there’s no guarantees as to what’s going to take place in the fall.”

John Reid, producing artistic director at Fairfield Theatre Company, said he’s waiting for state guidelines before making concrete plans for his two venues — The Warehouse, capacity 640, and the 220-seat StageOne. Restrictions on capacity will also determine what types of acts he can book.

“Right now we’re reviewing what needs to be done to prepare our facilities,” Reid said, including adding hand sanitizer stations and sneeze and counter guards for points of customer contact, buying PPE and reviewing security procedures. FTC is also working to make things safer for touring artists.

“We’ve actually done some configuration of our green rooms and dressing rooms to make sure artists have absolute sort of privacy, the ability, if you will, to quarantine backstage while they’re here and be among their fellow band members,” Reid said.

FTC has also joined NIVA, and Reid feels the venue’s needs are well represented in the decision-making process, though he’s had limited contact with anyone at the state level. Without help, he said, venues can’t hold on forever.

“If we’re operating at significantly reduced capacity, then the economics of the shows just don’t work,” Reid said. “The artists are reasonably looking for a decent payday. We have to pay all the costs of the show. When we’re looking at that, I will say that reduced capacity is certainly preferable to no capacity, but ultimately we’re going to have a lot of challenges.”

“If independent venues are not allowed to program and do shows, music, comedy, things like that, a matter of several months, then you can expect that many of them will have a hard time surviving.”

Like venue owners, touring musicians are similarly facing a long period of uncertainty.

“The last time I spoke to a couple of booking agents, they’re all operating under the understanding that everyone is going to be getting significantly less money, because this is a unique scenario,” said Carlos Wells, owner of The State House (max. capacity 250) in New Haven.

As Phase 3 emerges, a popular band that would ordinarily pack The State House won’t see as many faces, and that affects its bottom line. “Maybe 20% of their audience will still come out, or maybe more,” Wells said. “There are going to be a lot more door deals and a lot less touring, just because bands are going to be like, is it worth it for us to get in the van and travel?”

In recent months, Wells said he’s had a handful of interactions with the state regarding guidelines.

“In all communications I’ve gotten from the state and economic development, people will just give you the broad strokes, and then go palms up when you ask them for more details,” he said.

Gil Fried, chair of the sport management department at the University of New Haven, said cleaning and distancing policies at indoor venues will have to be strictly enforced by the state to have any positive effect on health outcomes during Phase 3.

“If you’re a nightclub and people are dancing, people are going to be constantly moving,” Fried said. “You can’t force six feet of separation. Do they have enough room at a venue like Toad’s Place or some these other smaller venues to effectively do that and still make a profit?”

Fried, an expert on stadium safety and risk management, said there are typically 50 touch points when spectators enter a stadium or arena. He’s also aware of new technologies — drones to sanitize entire stadiums, UV lights hooked up to trailers to clean football fields and Astroturf — to facilitate the return to large concert venues.

Smaller places, Fried said, will have to step up their cleaning procedures, and that goes against the culture of “dive bar,” where often owners don’t have the financial means to install expensive air cleaners or HVAC filtration systems.

“We’re used to seeing Sam Malone in Cheers cleaning the bar with a rag,” Fried said. “That ain’t going to cut it. You’re going to have to show that you take steps to make sure it’s as clean as possible.”

Paul Mayer, owner of Cafe Nine in New Haven since 2003, said he’s used to the typical ebbs and flows of the music scene. “Our business goes up and down, and it’s stronger some years than others,” Mayer said, “but this is impressive. There’s a complete shut down, and everybody is put on hold.”

Cafe Nine typically offers live music seven days a week. Mayer said he’ll attempt to return to live shows in July but with a reduced calendar, focusing more on local acts.

Patrons will have to sit at one of the small number of tables inside the already-cramped venue, with limited service at the bar. The audience will be adequately distanced from the performers. Mayer is thinking of putting shields on the mic stands that can be changed out and sanitized between acts.

So far, Mayer hasn’t been proactive about making suggestions to the state or seeking out guidance. His attitude has been “wait and see.”

Whether his efforts succeed or fail, Mayer said, depends on “people’s psychological attitudes, as far as how comfortable they’re gonna be coming into a space the size of Cafe Nine, or into even a larger venue, where people may not be able to space themselves to the distance as recommended.”

“You go to festivals or big concerts, and people are close together,” Mayer said. “We’re shoulder to shoulder, and to me, that’s the experience of rock ‘n’ roll, getting into the crowd, getting surrounded by the music and the feel of the people around you. I don’t know that we’re going to be able to get to that point for some time.”

Courant staff writer Christopher Arnott contributed to this story.